Climate Change Impacts on The Uruguayan Dairy Sector by 2050

Abstract

This thesis analyzed the impacts of climate change on the Uruguayan dairy sector from today to the year 2050. During the thesis’s development, the application of Climate-Smart Agriculture (CSA) policies was evaluated to enhance the sustainable intensification of this key sector. The four spheres (or fields) of sustainability were considered: economic, socio-cultural, environmental, and organizational. The primary focus was, however, on the economic and environmental effects of climate change and the adaptation and mitigation to its likely impacts. In this context, a novel Rational Holistic Planning and Decision-making Methodology was used to examine the current situation and future scenarios to 2050. A core component of the methodology was the application of the Land Suitability Analysis (LSA) method to the main pastures in Uruguay - Lucerne, and Ryegrass - for comparing their yields in a baseline scenario with projected yields under the expected climate by 2050. CSA relevant practices were then considered to respond to the likely climate changes and generate an approach for the ongoing adaptation of the dairy sector. Finally, different sustainable development indicators were proposed in order to measure the outcomes of the application of CSA policies. The LSA results showed that climate changes by 2050 would impact the suitability of the land to produce Lucerne in Uruguay. A noticeable projected decline is likely to occur mostly in the northeast and northwest of the country. The LSA modeling also indicated that areas in the south and southeast of Uruguay would experience a slight increase in their potential to grow this pasture. In the case of Ryegrass, the LSA modeling indicated that the southeast of the country would be the most benefited by the changes in the rainfall patterns and the increase in temperatures, with some benefits also occurring in the north. On the other hand, the southwest of the country is expected to slightly decrease the suitability for Ryegrass. This demonstrated the diverse impacts of climate change on the two main pastures as well as the possibilities for adaptation; for example, by moving from cultivating one (Lucerne) to the other (Ryegrass) in the southeast and north of Uruguay. These results are an important contribution to the decision-making process of dairy farmers and public institutions promoting the sustainable intensification of the dairy sector towards the future. While this particular research was focused on the Uruguayan dairy sector, the methodology deployed and its key methods can be applied in Uruguay, or other developing countries or sectors, promoting the sustainable development of other industries and regions.